A Recency-Only Pareto/NBD

This paper will examine an extension to the Pareto/NBD model commonly used in customer base analysis. The paper will demonstrate and estimate a "recency-only" version of the Pareto/NBD. The model will be fit to both real-world and simulated data and will be compared to the "recency/frequency" model. The paper finds that the model can adequately recover parameters in a variety of settings, but in some cases may predict poorly.