Toward computer-aided forecasting systems: gathering, coding, and validating the knowledge

Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods are likely to be most useful in obtaining accurate forecasts. The use of a computer-aided protocol analysis resulted in a reduction in the total lime required to code an expert's knowledge. The implications for overcoming the "knowledge acquisition bottleneck" are considered.