Analyzing Key Events & Causal Factors Impacting Cryptocurrency Lending Rates

Digital asset markets reached peak valuations of more than 3 trillion in 2021. However, the strong growth in crypto asset value in 2021 was met with turmoil and value destruction in subsequent years with a series of bankruptcies of cryptocurrency-related businesses in a period dubbed the "crypto winter." This study considers the impacts of the events of the crypto winter on decentralized lending protocols, specifically using the Aave protocol as a case study. Looking at data centered on interest rates, available liquidity, and the total value of invested funds on the Aave protocol, this study seeks to better understand how investors' perceptions of the safety of borrowing cryptocurrencies have changed after the events of the crypto winter. The study will aim to look at predicting spreads between variable and stable interest rates with an OLS regression and analyze the impacts of the crypto winter using historical Aave lending data.