Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research
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Abstract
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.
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1984-11-01
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Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, November 1984, pages 52-66. Publisher URL: http://www.aaai.org/AITopics/html/interfaces.html The author asserts his right to include this material in ScholarlyCommons@Penn.