Optimal Bias: Truth-Seeking vs. Decision-Making

At the foundation of current statistical practices and good decision making is the idea that there is a trade-off. Due to life’s uncertainties we must decide how good it is to be right and how bad it is to be wrong. Understanding the cost-benefits of being right or wrong helps us to understand systematic biases which may appear to be irrational on the surface but in actuality serve a rational function. Such an understanding may persuade decision-makers to introduce intentional bias into their decisions. Using the example of the Replication Crisis in Psychology, I will show that science is another form of decision-making which has intentional biases built in. Being consciously aware of this bias, and planning to have an optimal bias, will make for a healthier science.