Modernization and the fertility transition, Egypt, 1975

This study investigates regional marital fertility differentials in Egypt and their relationship to the level of modernization of the region: defined as economic development and social and cultural change. The intermediate variables (Davis and Blake, 1965) underlying these regional levels and patterns of marital fertility are determined and their relation to the level of modernization of the region is also evaluated. In order to assess the nature of the recent decline in the crude birth rate in Egypt, the long term fertility and mortality levels are discussed. The prospects of a fertility transition in Egypt are assessed in terms of the current fertility level and pattern, the extent of deliberate fertility regulation, the urban-rural fertility differential and differentials by socioeconomic status. The study draws from Easterlin's model of social and economic determinants of marital fertility as a frame of reference. The model's basic social and economic intermediate variables (denoted Cn, Cd, and CR)are evaluated, and the model's interpretations of cross-sectional marital fertility differentials by socioeconomic status and the long term fertility trend are empirically verified.