Jefferson, Philip NKim, Kunhee2023-05-222023-05-222012-11-012018-06-22Jefferson, P.N. & Kim, K. (2012). Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Poverty. In Jefferson, P.N. (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Poverty, 319-350. Oxford University Press.https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/2613This article examines the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic performance and measures of poverty in the United States. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents insights on the relationship between poverty and macroeconomic performance that emerge from the literature. The emphasis is on empirical studies from 1986 to 2011. Section 3 provides a snapshot of the change in poverty over National Bureau of Economic Research-dated recessions for a variety of poverty measures. Section 4 uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to characterize the response of poverty to innovations in various social indicators and measures of macroeconomic performance. Section 5 expands the empirical analysis to include alternative measures of poverty—a consumption-based poverty rate constructed by Meyer and Sullivan (2010) and an income-based poverty rate constructed by Broda and colleagues (2009) by using a consumer price index that has been adjusted for substitution and quality bias. Section 6 conducts a forecasting exercise for income poverty and consumption poverty. Section 7 concludes and offers suggestions for future research.p. 319-350, The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Poverty edited by Philip N. Jefferson, 2012, reproduced by permission of Oxford University Press: http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195393781.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780195393781macroeconomic performancepoverty measuresrecessionsconsumptionpoverty ratesincome povertyEconometricsEconomic PolicyHealth and Medical AdministrationIncome DistributionMacroeconomicsStatistics and ProbabilityBook Chapter