Glaeser, Edward L.Gyourko, Joseph2023-05-222006-04-012005-04-012017-07-14https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/34320Urban decline is not the mirror image of growth, and durable housing is the primary reason the nature of decline is so different. This paper presents a model of urban decline with durable housing and verifies these implications of the model: (1) city growth rates are skewed so that cities grow more quickly than they decline; (2) urban decline is highly persistent; (3) positive shocks increase population more than they increase housing prices; (4) negative shocks decrease housing prices more than they decrease population; (5) if housing prices are below construction costs, then the city declines; and (6) the combination of cheap housing and weak labor demand attracts individuals with low levels of human capital to declining cities.© 2005 by University of Chicago PressDemography, Population, and EcologyFinance and Financial ManagementGrowth and DevelopmentRegional EconomicsArticle