Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research

Armstrong, J. Scott2023-05-222023-05-221984-11-012007-06-13https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/39653Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of ResearchArticle