Silverman, Barry G
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Publication Human Behavior Models for Game-Theoretic Agents: Case of Crowd Tipping(2002-10-01) Silverman, Barry G; Johns, Michael; Weaver, Ransom; O'Brien, Kevin; Silverman, RachelThis paper describes an effort to integrate human behavior models from a range of ability, stress, emotion, decision theoretic, and motivation literatures into a game-theoretic framework. Our goal is to create a common mathematical framework (CMF) and a simulation environment that allows one to research and explore alternative behavior models to add realism to software agents – e.g., human reaction times, constrained rationality, emotive states, and cultural influences. Our CMF is based on a dynamical, game-theoretic approach to evolution and equilibria in Markov chains representing states of the world that the agents can act upon. In these worlds the agents' utilities (payoffs) are derived by a deep model of cognitive appraisal of intention achievement including assessment of emotional activation/decay relative to concern ontologies, and subject to (integrated) stress and related constraints. We present the progress to date on the mathematical framework, and on an environment for editing the various elements of the cognitive appraiser, utility generators, concern ontologies, and Markov chains. We summarize a prototype of an example training game for counter-terrorism and crowd management. Future research needs are elaborated including validity issues and the gaps in the behavioral literatures that agent developers must struggle with.Publication Human Behavior Models for Agents in Simulators and Games: Part I: Enabling Science with PMFserv(2006-04-01) Silverman, Barry G; Johns, Michael; Cornwell, Jason; O'Brien, KevinThis article focuses on challenges to improving the realism of socially intelligent agents and attempts to reflect the state of the art in human behavior modeling with particular attention to the impact of personality/cultural values and affect as well as biology/stress upon individual coping and group decision-making. The first section offers an assessment of the state of the practice and of the need to integrate valid human performance moderator functions (PMFs) from traditionally separated sub-fields of the behavioral literature. The second section pursues this goal by postulating a unifying architecture and principles for integrating existing PMF theories and models. It also illustrates a PMF testbed called PMFserv created for implementating and studying how PMFs may contribute to such an architecture. To date it interconnects versions of PMFs on physiology and stress (Janis-Mann, Gillis-Hursh, others); personality, cultural and emotive processes (Damasio, Cognitive Appraisal-OCC, value systems); perception (Gibsonian affordance); social processes (relations, identity, trust, nested intentionality); and cognition (affect- and stress-augmented decision theory, bounded rationality). The third section summarizes several usage case studies (asymmetric warfare, civil unrest, and political leaders) and concludes with lessons learned. Implementing and inter-operating this broad collection of PMFs helps to open the agenda for research on syntheses that can help the field reach a greater level of maturity. Part II presents a case study in using PMFserv for rapid scenario composability and realistic agent behavior.Publication Modeling Factions for 'Effects Based Operations': Part II Behavioral Game Theory(2007-09-01) Silverman, Barry G; Bharathy, Gnana K; Nye, Benjamin; Smith, Tony EMilitary, diplomatic, and intelligence analysts are increasingly interested in having a valid system of models that span the social sciences and interoperate so that one can determine the effects that may arise from alternative operations (courses of action) in different lands. Part I of this article concentrated on internal validity of the components of such a synthetic framework – a world diplomacy game as well as the agent architecture for modeling leaders and followers in different conflicts. But how valid are such model collections once they are integrated together and used out-of-sample (see Section 1)? Section 2 compares these realistic, descriptive agents to normative rational actor theory and offers equilibria insights for conflict games. Sections 3 and 4 offer two real world cases (Iraq and SE Asia) where the agent models are subjected to validity tests and an EBO experiment is then run for each case. We conclude by arguing that substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analytic experiments are to effectively explore conflicts and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such efforts are likely to improve behavioral game theory as well.Publication Affordances in AI(2012-01-01) Nye, Benjamin D.; Silverman, Barry GAffordances in AI refer to a design methodology for creating artificial intelligence systems that are designed to perceive their environment in terms of its affordances (Sahin et al. 2007). Affordances in AI are adapted from affordances introduced in The Ecological Approach to Visual Perception by James J. Gibson (1979). Design methodologies in the applied sciences use affordances to represent potential actions that exist as a relationship between an agent and its environment. This approach to artificial intelligence is designed for autonomous agents, making it suitable for robotics and simulation.Publication StateSim: Lessons Learned from 20 Years of A Country Modeling and Simulation Toolset(2020-01-01) Silverman, Barry G; Silverman, Daniel M; Bharathy, Gnana; Weyer, Nathan; Tam, WilliamA holy grail for military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysis is a valid set of software agent models that act as the desired ethno-political factions so that one can test the effects of alternative courses of action in different countries. This article explains StateSim, a country modeling approach that synthesizes best-of-breed theories from across the social sciences and that has helped numerous organizations over 20 years to study insurgents, gray zone actors, and other societal instabilities. The country modeling literature is summarized (Sect 1.1) and synthetic inquiry is contrasted with scientific inquiry (Sect. 1.2 and 2). Section 2 also explains many fielded StateSim applications and 100s of past acceptability tests and validity assessments. Section 3 then describes how users now construct and run ‘first pass’ country models within hours due to the StateSim Generator, while Section 4 offers two country analyses that illustrate this approach. The conclusions explain lessons learned.Publication Validating Agent Based Social Systems Models(2010-12-05) Bharathy, Gnana K.; Silverman, Barry GValidating social systems is not a trivial task. The paper outlines some of our past efforts in validating models of social systems with cognitively detailed agents. It also presents some of the challenges faced by us. A social system built primarily of cognitively detailed agents can provide multiple levels of correspondence, both at observable and abstract aggregated levels. Such a system can also pose several challenges including large feature spaces, issues in information elicitation with database, experts and news feeds, counterfactuals, fragmented theoretical base, and limited funding for validation. Our own approach to validity assessment is to consider the entire life cycle and assess the validity under four broad dimensions of methodological validity, internal validity, external validity and qualitative, causal and narrative validity. In the past, we have employed a triangulation of multiple validation techniques, including face validation as well as formal validation tests including correspondence testing.Publication Social Learning and Adoption of New Behavior in a Virtual Agent Society(2013-01-01) Nye, Benjamin D; Silverman, Barry GSocial learning and adoption of new behavior govern the rise of a variety of behaviors: from actions as mundane as dance steps to those as dangerous as new ways to make IED detonators. However, agents in immersive virtual environments lack the ability to realistically simulate the spread of new behavior. To address this gap, a cognitive model was designed that represents the well-known socio-cognitive factors of attention, social influence, and motivation that influence learning and the adoption of a new behavior. To explore the effectiveness of this model, simulations modeled the spread of two competing memes in Hamariyah, an archetypal Iraqi village developed for cross-cultural training. Diffusion and clustering analyses were used to examine adoption patterns in these simulations. Agents produced well-defined clusters of early versus late adoption based on their social influences, personality, and contextual factors, such as employment status. These findings indicate that the spread of behavior can be simulated plausibly in a virtual agent society and has the potential to increase the realism of immersive virtual environments.Publication A Demonstration of the PMF-Extraction Approach: Modeling The Effects of Sound on Crowd Behavior(2002-05-01) Cornwell, Jason B; Silverman, Barry G; O'Brien, Kevin; Johns, MichaelThe vast majority of psychology, sociology, and other social-science literature describing human behavior and performance does not reach the eyes of those of us working in the modeling and simulation community. Our recent work has been concerned with the extraction and implementation of Human Behavior Models (HBMs)/Performance Moderator Functions (PMFs) from this literature. This paper demonstrates how our methodology was applied to extract models of the effects of music and sound on both individuals and groups and to implement them in a simulated environment. PMFs describing how several classes of sound affect decision-making and performance were constructed based on well-established psychological models. These PMFs were implemented in a simulation of protesters and security guards outside a prison that demonstrates how the presence of chanting and music changes the response of protesters to police aggression. The extraction of PMFs from the literature, the synthesis of a coherent, cohesive model, and the implementation and results of the simulation are discussed.Publication A Demonstration of the PMF-Extraction Approach: Modeling The Effects of Sound on Crowd Behavior(2002-05-01) Cornwell, Jason; Silverman, Barry G; O'Brien, Kevin; Johns, MichaelThe vast majority of psychology, sociology, and other social-science literature describing human behavior and performance does not reach the eyes of those of us working in the modeling and simulation community. Our recent work has been concerned with the extraction and implementation of Human Behavior Models(HBMs)/ Performance Moderator Functions(PMFs) from this literature. This paper demonstrates how our methodology was applied to extract models of the effects of music and sound on both individuals and groups and to implement them in a simulated environment. PMFs describing how several classes of sound affect decision-making and performance were constructed based on well-established psychological models. These PMFs were implemented in a simulation of protesters and security guards outside a prison that demonstrates how the presence of chanting and music changes the response of protesters to police aggression. The extraction of PMFs from the literature, the synthesis of a coherent, cohesive model, and the implementation and results of the simulation are discussed.Publication Affordance Theory for Improving the Rapid Generation, Composability, and Reusability of Synthetic Agents and Objects(2003-05-12) Cornwell, Jason B; O'Brien, Kevin; Silverman, Barry G; Toth, Jozsef AThis paper describes an effort to revise the PMFserv agent architecture in order to implement J.J. Gibson's Affordance Theory. The theoretical justification for this revision is outlined along with the engineering constraints that inspired it. We describe the resulting architectural changes and the impact of those changes on the flexibility, ease of rapid scenario creation, and ability to reuse previous investments in knowledge engineering offered by our architecture. The level of effort required to build a new scenario within PMFserv both with and without the revisions suggested by Affordance Theory is compared. We conclude that Affordance Theory is an elegant solution to the problem of providing both rapid scenario development and the simulation of individual differences in perception, culture, and emotionality within the same agent architecture.