Maurer, Raimond
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Publication How Will Persistent Low Expected Returns Shape Household Economic Behavior?(2018-10-02) Horneff, Vanya; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia SMany believe that global capital markets will generate lower returns in the future versus the past. We examine how persistently lower real returns will reshape work, retirement, saving, and investment behavior of older persons using a calibrated dynamic life cycle model. In a low return regime, workers build up less wealth in their tax-qualified 401(k) accounts versus the past, claim social security benefits later, and work more. Moreover, the better-educated are more sensitive to real interest rate changes, and the least-educated alter their behavior less. Interestingly, wealth inequality is lower in periods of persistent low expected returns.Publication Dynamic Asset Allocation with Regime Shifts and Long Horizon CVaR-Constraints(2013-04-01) Vo, Huy Thanh; Maurer, RaimondWe analyse portfolio policies for investors who invest optimally for given investment horizons with respect to Conditional Value-at-Risk constraints. We account for nonnormally distributed, skewed, and leptokurtic asset return distributions due to regime shifts. The focus is on standard CRRA utility with a money back guarantee at maturity, which is often augmented to individual retirement plans. Optimal solutions for the unconstrained as well as the constrained policy are provided and examined for risk management costs calculated as welfare losses. Our results confirm previous findings that money back guarantees yield mild downside protection at low economic costs for most long term investors.Publication How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios(2013-10-01) Hubener, Andreas; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia SHousehold decisions are profoundly shaped by a complex set of financial options due to Social Security rules determining retirement, spousal, and survivor benefits, along with benefit adjustments that vary with the age at which these are claimed. These rules influence optimal household asset allocation, insurance, and work decisions, given life cycle demographic shocks such as marriage, divorce, and children. Our model generates a wealth profile and a low and stable equity fraction consistent with empirical evidence. We also confirm predictions that wives will claim retirement benefits earlier than husbands, while life insurance is mainly purchased by younger men. Our policy simulations imply that eliminating survivor benefits would sharply reduce claiming differences by sex while dramatically increasing men’s life insurance purchases.Publication Optimal Social Security Claiming Behavior under Lump Sum Incentives: Theory and Evidence(2023-01-13) Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S; Rogalla, Ralph; Schimetschek, TatjanaPeople who delay claiming Social Security receive higher lifelong benefits upon retirement. We survey individuals on their willingness to delay claiming later, if they could receive a lump sum in lieu of a higher annuity payment. Using a moment-matching approach, we calibrate a lifecycle model tracking observed claiming patterns under current rules and predict optimal claiming outcomes under the lump sum approach. Our model correctly predicts that early claimers under current rules would delay claiming most when offered actuarially fair lump sums, and for lump sums worth 87% as much, claiming ages would still be higher than at present.Publication Putting the Pension Back in 401(k) Plans: Optimal versus Default Longevity Income Annuities(2023-01-13) Horneff, Vanya; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia SMost retirees take payouts from their defined contribution pensions as lump sums, but the US Treasury recently moved to encourage firms and individuals to convert some of the $15 trillion in plan balances into longevity income annuities paying lifetime benefits from age 85 onward. We evaluate the welfare implications of this reform using a calibrated lifecycle consumption and portfolio choice model embodying realistic institutional considerations. We show that defaulting a fixed fraction of workers’ 401(k) assets over a dollar threshold is a cost-effective and appealing way to enhance retirement security, enhancing welfare by up to 20% of retiree plan accruals.Publication Participating Payout Life Annuities: Lessons from Germany(2012-05-01) Maurer, Raimond; Rogalla, Ralph; Siegelin, IvonneThis paper analyzes the regulatory framework of German immediate participating payout life annuities (PLAs), which offer guaranteed minimum benefits as well as participation in insurers’ surpluses. Our particular focus lies on the mechanics of sharing surpluses between shareholders and policyholders. We show that the process of surplus determination, allocation, and distribution mostly follows transparent and clear rules, and that an insurance company’s management has limited leeway with respect to discretionary decision making. Subsequently, we develop an Asset Liability Model for a German life insurer that offers PLAs. Based on this model, we run Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate benefit variability and insurer stability under stochastic mortality and capital market developments. Our results suggest that through PLAs guaranteed benefits can be provided with high credibility, while, at the same time, annuitants receive attractive Money’s Worth Ratios. Moreover, we show that it might be difficult to offer a fixed benefit annuity providing the same lifetime utility as a PLA for the same premium and a comparably low insolvency risk. Overall, participating life annuity schemes may be an efficient way to deal with risk factors that are highly unpredictable and difficult to hedge over the long run, such as systematic mortality and investment risks.Publication Accounting and Actuarial Smoothing of Retirement Payouts in Participating Life Annuities(2014-02-01) Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S; Rogalla, Ralph; Siegelin, IvonneLife insurers use accounting and actuarial techniques to smooth reporting of firm assets and liabilities, seeking to transfer surpluses in good years to cover benefit payouts in bad years. Yet these techniques been criticized as they make it difficult to assess insurers’ true financial status. We develop stylized and realistically-calibrated models of participating lifetime annuities, an insurance product that pays retirees guaranteed lifelong benefits along with variable nonguaranteed surplus. Our goal is to illustrate how accounting and actuarial techniques for this product shape policyholder wellbeing as well as insurer profitability and stability. We show that smoothing adds value to both the annuitant and the insurer, so curtailing smoothing could undermine the market for long-term retirement payout products.Publication Will They Take the Money and Work? An Empirical Analysis of People’s Willingness to Delay Claiming Social Security Benefits for a Lump Sum(2014-10-01) Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S; Rogalla, Ralph; Schimetschek, TatjanaThis paper investigates whether exchanging the Social Security delayed retirement credit, currently paid as an increase in lifetime annuity benefits, for a lump sum would induce later claiming and additional work. We show that people would voluntarily claim about half a year later if the lump sum were paid for claiming any time after the Early Retirement Age, and about two-thirds of a year later if the lump sum were paid only for those claiming after their Full Retirement Age. Overall, people will work one-third to one-half of the additional months, compared to the status quo. Those who would currently claim at the youngest ages are likely to be most responsive to the offer of a lump sum benefit.Publication Recreating Retirement Sustainability(2013-10-01) Mitchell, Olivia S; Maurer, RaimondThe financial crisis and the ensuring Great Recession have alerted those concerned with old-age security to the extreme risk confronting our retirement system. In this volume, we provide an indepth analysis of the ‘black swans’ threatening pension plans around the world. Longevity risk, capital market shocks, regulatory and political risk, and model risk all have profound consequences for pension plan participants, plan sponsors, regulators, and consultants. This book also sketches various ways to manage and finance these risks, with a view to rebuilding a more resilient retirement system. In particular, the ensuing chapters take on longevity risk, capital market risk, model risk, and regulatory risk.Publication Cognitive Ability, Financial Literacy, and the Demand for Financial Advice at Older Ages: Findings from the Health and Retirement Study(2018-01-01) Kim, Hugh H; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia SThis paper evaluates how cognitive ability and financial literacy shape the demand for financial advice at older ages. We analyze a new module of the Health and Retirement Study which queried older respondents about their usage of financial advice and other financial management activities. Results show that cognitive ability and financial literacy are often positively correlated with advice-seeking for financial matters. Generally speaking, the more cognitively able tend to seek financial advice from professionals outside of family members; nevertheless, they are also more likely to be overconfident regarding their investments. The more financially literate also tend to ask for help with money management, but they are less likely to be overconfident. Overall, our findings are suggestive that cognitive ability as well as financial literacy can help shape older persons’ money management behaviors.